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January 30, 2008
With Home Prices Dropping, Car Prices Are Sure to Follow
It's accepted wisdom now that overall auto sales will drop in 2008. This is seen as a function of the housing bust, during which as much as 20% of new car purchases were funded by residential real estate profit, home equity cashouts and the general euphoria in real estate related industries.
Now that home prices are dropping -- and will continue to do so until they fall in line with median income -- we believe the average new vehicle transaction price will drop as well. If houses can fall 10%-30% in value, why not cars?
In November we ran a story from Comerica Bank stating the average transaction price of a new vehicle was $29,024. Our projection is this number will fall below $25,000, perhaps in 2009 if not this year, for several reasons:
1. Less money to spend. The option of taking cash out of a home to finance a new purchase is gone. The psychology of spending "free money" to buy a luxe ride will give way to folks actually having to make the payment out of their own pocket. And with many people paying even more for housing due to adjustable rates, they will choose cheaper rides.
2. Gas prices. While $3 a gallon gas isn't as draconian as five bucks, it will have an effect over time. People are already choosing more efficient crossovers and smaller SUVs over the big buses, and V8s are going out of favor. Look for more people to choose V6s in cars and for four-cylinders to pick up in popularity.
3. Negative equity. A greater percentage of folks are upside down in their cars, and have been rolling their balances into new loan agreements. To catch up, their new purchases will have to be cheaper and it's going to take years to eat away at the balance.
4. New frugality. In a tough economy, the value of money becomes more dear. People will start thinking twice about how much money they spend. They will choose cheaper cars, perhaps with more options, but the luxe-marques are in for a rough ride.
5. New wage structures. The Detroit car companies have made big headlines with their new labor deals, that allow them to replace higher paid union workers with new hires at a lower wage scale. The higher wages translated into higher sticker prices; the lower wages will allow for slimmer price hikes and even reductions.
6. Battle for fewer consumers. Don't let the tough talk fool you. As fewer cars are sold throughout 2008, the rebate war will kick into full swing -- and spiffs will help bring down the average transaction price.
This last reason is why we launched Current Auto Rebates, a site that publishes all the rebates for every model in a single PDF file, to make bargain hunting that much easier.
Posted by Frank at January 30, 2008 6:02 AM | Filed under Acura
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